Ending a Long Conflict?

Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), has been in prison for 26 years for treason. Recently, a video of him in prison was released, the first time the world has seen or heard from him since 1999. In the video, the 76-year-old Öcalan echoed a message that had been shared earlier this year: the PKK's armed fight against the Turkish state should end, and the PKK should dissolve. The PKK officially announced its dissolution in May.

The PKK is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies. On Monday, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with representatives from the pro-Kurdish DEM party who had visited Öcalan in prison. Days later, PKK fighters in northern Iraq destroyed some of their weapons. The entire disarmament process is expected to take months.

It seems that a decades-long, bloody conflict that has killed over 40,000 people since the 1980s might be coming to an end.

The PKK's Goals

The PKK was originally founded to create an independent Kurdish state. It fought against the Turkish government and carried out attacks. They have tens of thousands of supporters. However, they have not demanded a Kurdish national state for 20 years.

Why Now?

It's a big question why these steps are happening now. One expert believes that neither side could win anymore. The PKK transitioning to a purely political level with a goal of democracy and federalization of Turkey with cultural rights for Kurds is its goal.

Erdoğan's Challenges

President Erdoğan is under pressure. The imprisonment of a political rival, the mayor of Istanbul, caused protests. His party lost in several cities in local elections, and the Turkish currency has fallen in value. Presidential elections are in 2028. Erdoğan's party might need the support of the pro-Kurdish DEM party to change the constitution or dissolve parliament early.

Could Öcalan Be Released?

There is speculation that Öcalan could be released from prison, as his supporters have long demanded. If there were to be a peace process with negotiations, his release could be discussed. However, experts believe releasing political prisoners who have not fought would be the priority.

What's Next?

There isn't a true ceasefire yet. The PKK has stopped attacking Turkey, but Turkey hasn't stopped attacking PKK fighters. The disarmament is symbolic, but still important. Now, Turkey needs to take steps, such as stopping its attacks and starting real negotiations.